STEP 2: Build out assumptions
...based on a contextual framework of factors that will potentially influence the uptake of NUMs
At the crux of assumption-based forecasting are key contextual demand factors that determine method uptake. These factors are shaped by various inputs, which are the result of the current social, political, and economic influences in the country. They also include the success and/or limitations of the program that supports the introduction and/or expansion of the NUM. Our research has identified four primary contextual factors that must be considered in the forecasting methodology for NUMs:
These contextual factors are inter-related and should be considered inclusively when preparing a forecast. Table 3 outlines these factors, the inputs and influences that shape them, including examples of secondary data sources that can support assumption building around these factors. Note that the larger political environment—including policy and government commitment—has a cross-cutting impact on the way each factor actually plays out.