Section 6: Taking the Discussion Forward

By helping countries and programs maximize forecasting accuracy, particularly for contraceptives that are not accounted for in existing procurement tools, this forecasting guide helps address three key objectives: (1) strengthen existing procurement systems, (2) enhance the use of resources, and (3) the increase the knowledge base. Addressing this procurement challenge ultimately has the potential to (4) increase access to contraceptive commodities and (5) expand contraceptive choice at the country level.

Moreover, our goal for this guide is that it will influence how forecasting for NUMs will occur in the future—and that this is a step in the right direction. By utilizing a set of defined factors to inform assumption making as part of the forecasting process, programs can base decisions on a standardized framework that will present a realistic picture of future markets for NUMs. We are calling for a systematic approach to forecasting for NUMs. However, we cannot reach that goal without documenting, monitoring, and accessing forecasts and forecast performances for NUMs over time. This will take commitment from programs and individuals worldwide.

We ask that you commit to taking the discussion forward. Here’s how you can contribute:

  1. Submit your own “Tips from the Expert” regarding your NUMs forecasting experiences and lessons learned here (go to: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSf7A5CzdUn8KwvqR_27C_s5GQFGb09AfpdzBKUXziOsO20elA/viewform?formkey=dHFUdlVLMlU2Mmw5ZWxUSjkzeTY5U3c6MQ).
  2. Participate in generating awareness around NUMs forecasting and increasing the knowledge base by engaging in online discussions and forums around the topic. When possible, track and share program data to build out data sources for NUMs forecasting.
  3. Suggest recommendations and feedback to the guide—especially if you use it to support a forecast—by emailing irhinfo@georgetown.edu with “Feedback to NUMs Guide” in the title. You can also provide feedback on the guide through the K4Health Toolkit here.