Many financial issues need to be considered when preparing a NUM forecast. There may be inhibiting/facilitating factors associated with commodity costs, particularly the program’s ability to purchase the anticipated required quantity of the product; the clients’ ability to pay for the product when relevant; and the health facilities’ ability to offer the product (e.g., is special equipment needed, are there incentive schemes in place, such as performance-based financing, that affect service delivery, etc.)?
Willingness and ability of donors and governments to procure the product will depend on product cost, budgets; and policies related to such factors as product registration, emphasis on certain types of products (e.g., long-acting and permanent methods (LAPM), injectable contraceptives), and preferred manufacturers (PATH 2009).
Programs have to examine the costs to clients (e.g., any repeat costs for continued use, willingness-to-pay through public/private sector outlets when relevant), intermediate costs to the facility/health delivery system/distributor, and comparative costs of the method to other existing methods. These costs can be influenced by the larger health system; e.g., if the public health system provides the method free of charge or not, if the method costs are covered by insurance, and/or if the product is available through both public- and private- sector channels. Secondary data sources with respect to finance factors include the DHS, RHS, and national population census data.
- Public-sector issues:
- Can the program afford to procure enough of a product to meet demand? Are donors or other sources willing and able to procure the product?
- Are performance-based financing structures in place, and, if so, is the NUM included in the system? Is there an incentive/disincentive to offer the product and how will this affect the health facilities’ willingness to offer the product?
- Will clients be expected to pay for the product in the public sector? Can clients afford to pay for the method at the price point set?
- Has funding for promotional strategies for family planning been allocated? How far has planning and implementation progressed? Is the NUM included? If not, is there an opportunity to do so?
- Private-sector issues:
- Is there a business case for distributors/pharmacies/social marketing organizations for offering the product? How much of the product will they need to sell to make a profit?
- Can clients afford to pay for the method at the price point set?
- What is the competition for the product in the market? Is there more than one brand of the product, and how does this affect price and demand?
 For public health programs, availability of financing for commodity procurement should not be used to constrain a forecast. A forecast is the estimated future demand assuming full availability of supply. Funding constraints can be factored into roll-out plans, supply plans, and scale up after the forecast is complete.