A Forecasting Guide for New and Underused Methods of Family Planning

The quandary: how does one go about forecasting for reproductive health commodities when there is limited or no historical data on which to base the projection?

This guide provides direction to programs that want to forecast for new and underused methods (NUMs) of family planning. It supports program managers and others involved in forecasting as they plan to (1) introduce a contraceptive technology for the first time in a country, and/or (2) position an underused method for scale up. The guide recognizes that accurate forecasts take into account the larger system into which the NUM will be introduced and scaled, and it offers a framework for building rational assumptions to support accurate forecasting for NUMs or any family planning method where future demand is inherently difficult to predict. It also identifies common pitfalls in NUMs forecasting and recommends strategies to avoid them.

The toolkit serves as a platform to (1) host the guide as a web-format, (2) serve as a "home" for the PDF downloadable version (see toolbar at right), and (3) collect feedback from the global health community.

The conceptualization and documentation of this guide was a coordinated effort among Georgetown University’s Institute for Reproductive Health (IRH), John Snow Inc. (JSI), and Population Services International (PSI), with input from key experts in the field of global health. Support for this project was funded by PATH, on behalf of the Reproductive Health Supplies Coalition, under the terms of the subgrant no. GAT.1291-05142-GRT. The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reproductive Health Supplies Coalition or PATH.



Hosted on October 24, 2012, this webinar covers an overview and introduction to the guide. Click here to view the Blackboard Collaborate recording.

Once you are in the program, you may have to adjust your speaker settings (Tools>Audio>Audio Set Up Wizard) at the menu bar at the top to hear the recording. Also, you will need to press "play" on the bottom toolbar to start the presentation!

Toolkit last updated: September 21, 2012